22nd October 2025
Since January 2024 when the Houthis attacked ships going through the Suez Canal, shipping from Asia to Europe continues diverting around South Africa, adding between 10 to 14 days onto the transit time.
If the Gaza peace deal holds, the shipping industry will once more consider the possibility of safe passage through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
If this happens, it will be important for the carriers to manage the return to Suez transits, the earliest this is likely to happen is the second quarter of 2026.
In Q2 2025, Sea-Intelligence calculated the weekly volume from Far East, Middle East and India into Europe as 459,000 TEU. Should all carriers instantly return to the Suez Canal, rather than phasing in services, it would mean that for at least two weeks, European ports would be faced with handling around 918,000 TEU each week.
The overnight increased volume could cause significant problems for the ports, potentially crashing the port systems and bring widespread congestion which would still lead to delays and additional costs.
However, if the return is phased in over a longer period of say two months, then the ports are likely to be able to cope with the increase demand, which is calculated at around 10% over this eight week period.
No doubt shippers and importers would welcome this return, less pressure on the supply chain lead times and potentially cheaper rates.
Of course, this all depends upon whether the peace deal holds.
